๐งฎ Binary Exhaustion Lab
DEDICATED ยท ALGO + LLM ยท hybrid_v1โ What is the Binary Exhaustion Lab? โ click to expand whitepaper ยท read
Dedicated, ground-up rebuild of the candle-counter screen reader. The Binary Exhaustion engine reads consecutive runs, MA stacking, distance-from-mean, ZigZag swings, and emits a directional probability for the next 1โ3 candles. An LLM optionally confirms or overrides. One armed session locks one symbol โ switching charts mid-stream cannot contaminate another session. Every observation can auto-fire a Monte-Carlo paper wager sized by per-bucket Wilson lower-bound ร ยผ-Kelly.
Think of this as a betting workbench for short-term candle exhaustion. You point it at one symbol/timeframe, and on every "observation" it runs a deterministic candle-counting algorithm (plus an optional LLM second opinion) to predict where the next N bars are headed. Those predictions get auto-resolved against real price action so the lab learns its own calibrated win rate, not a textbook one.
- ARM SESSION โ locks the lab to one symbol (e.g. EUR/CHF, BTCUSD, NVDA). A unique DB index makes it physically impossible to have two active sessions on the same symbol, so your stats can never get contaminated by another chart.
- ANALYZE NOW โ pulls fresh OHLC bars and runs the Binary Exhaustion engine (consecutive candles, MA stacking, distance-from-mean, ZigZag swings). Output: direction + confidence % + reasoning. Optionally paste/capture a chart screenshot and the LLM gets to confirm or override.
- Auto-resolve โ N bars later (your "Horizon"), a background worker compares entry vs. close and stamps the prediction win / loss / flat.
- Calibration table โ outcomes get bucketed by the confidence you predicted (50โ60%, 60โ70%, โฆ). The Wilson lower bound column tells you the conservative true win rate per band. Until any band hits โฅ50 samples, the table shows you it's not yet trustworthy.
- TAKE THE TRADE โ sizes a paper wager at ยผ-Kelly ร Wilson p_lower, capped at 2% of bankroll. No edge โ tiny 0.1% floor wager. Real edge โ it ramps up automatically. Tick the "Auto-charge MC" box and every observation fires a paper trade on its own.
Field cheat-sheet: Symbol = the only ticker this session will track. Asset = routing hint (forex/crypto/stock/futures) so we hit the right OHLC provider. TF = candle timeframe (1m/5m/15m/1h/4h/1d). Horizon (bars) = how many bars ahead the prediction is graded on. Bankroll $ = the simulated account size that the wager sizer scales from.
๐ธ SCREEN READ
or use Capture Screen to share a live chart tab.
๐ฐ NEXT WAGER (MONTE CARLO)
๐ LIVE CALIBRATION (THIS SESSION)
| Confidence band | n | wins | losses | pฬ | pฬ low (Wilson) | armed? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no data yet | ||||||
๐ OBSERVATION FEED (THIS SESSION)
๐งพ PAPER WAGER LOG
| when | dir | conf | size | basis | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no wagers yet | |||||
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